Same as Ever

Lessons from Same as Ever by Morgan Housel

Human Nature Constants

People don't want accurate information, they want confirming information - we seek data that supports what we already believe
The more you want something to be true, the more likely you are to believe a story that overestimates the odds of it being true
Progress happens too slowly to notice, setbacks happen too quickly to ignore - we overweight immediate problems and underweight gradual improvements
Wounds heal, scars last - people adapt to trauma but carry lasting behavioral changes that seem irrational to outsiders
Expectations move faster than solutions - we get used to improvements quickly, then demand even more

The biggest risk is what no one is talking about - the most dangerous risks are the ones we don't see coming
Every job looks easy when you're not the one doing it - complexity and difficulty are invisible from the outside
Stress causes people to focus on what matters most, often revealing hidden priorities and capabilities
The person who says "it will never happen" and the person who says "it's inevitable" are usually both wrong
Wild numbers get the most attention but are the least useful for decision-making

Things that have never happened before happen all the time - unprecedented events are actually quite normal
The biggest changes often come from the youngest and oldest people who have the least to lose
Competitive advantages rarely last as long as we expect, but they often last longer than competitors think
Good ideas taken too far become bad ideas - most failures come from taking successful strategies to extremes

People want to believe they're in control more than they want to admit they're not
The illusion of control leads to overconfidence, while learned helplessness leads to missed opportunities
Your willingness to believe a prediction is influenced by how much you need that prediction to be true
Simple rules produce complex results, complex rules produce stupid results
Most debates aren't about what happened, but why it happened - and why it happened is usually unknowable

History is just one damn thing after another, but it rhymes because human nature stays the same
Every generation thinks they're unique and facing unprecedented challenges
The past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, the future won't be as different as you imagine
Nostalgia is a powerful force that makes the past look more appealing than it actually was

Long-term thinking is easier to believe in than to accomplish - our brains are wired for immediate gratification
The most important force in business and investing is the power of compounding, but it requires patience most people don't have
Overnight success usually takes about ten years of invisible preparation
The best way to increase odds of long-term success is to survive short-term volatility

Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome - people respond predictably to reward structures
Everyone believes in their own delusions because those delusions serve a purpose
The strongest force in finance is the urge to keep up with others, even when it's self-destructive